Researchers at Imperial College of London are optimitic that there will be no major epidemic of the human form of mad cow disease in England. In a study published today in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface, the report states that they believe only about 70 people will be diagnosed with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Epidemiologist Dr Azra Ghani said, 'We think that the epidemic will be quite small in terms of cases that have arisen from consumption of beef.'

These estimates are based on samples taken from the tonsils and appendices of 12,764 people. These organs are where the infection is usually most easily identified. From those people, only three samples tested positive. Only one of these samples was taken from a person who had the disease.

The study concludes that, while up to 3800 people might be infected, a relatively small number of these people will develop the disease.

The calculations are based on tonsil and appendix samples, where evidence of infection is most evident, taken from 12,764 people. Three samples tested positive but only one matched tissue taken from a person with the disease.

BSE has a long incubation period - up to 20 years. Some of the people infected will die of other causes before developing the disease. In England, 146 people have died of BSE.

While two suspected cases of the disease may have been transmitted through blood transfusion, Dr. Ghani is uncertain as to whether this may be a future threat. 'The disease in terms of clinical cases seems to have peaked but we still have this uncertainty regarding secondary transmission,' she said.