Many times there is a runaway favorite for best picture and everybody knows who the likely winner is going to be before the ceremony even starts. While this is no guarantee (remember 'Saving Private Ryan'?) the favorite usually comes away with the statue. This year, there are two films who seem to be running neck-a-neck in the best picture category and experts are divided as to which one will take home the Oscar.

'The Aviator' starring Leonardo DiCaprio is the story of billionaire Howard Hughes. It is up against 'Million Dollar Baby' the Clint Eastwood directed boxing film starring Hilary Swank. The other three contenders, 'Finding Neverland,' 'Ray' and 'Sideways' are not considered serious contenders by most critics.

With all apologies to Bill Murray at 'Weekend Update' are our selections for the major Oscar Awards:

Best Supporting Actor: A very tough call between Alan Alda, Morgan Freeman and Thomas Haden Church. Jamie Foxx was excellent in 'Collateral' but the film itself wasn't outstanding and Foxx will get plenty of votes for best actor which will detract from his chances in this category. Freeman will win for the dignity and grace he brought to 'Million Dollar Baby' but this is going to be a very close race.

Best Supporting Actress: All of the contenders did fabulous jobs but Cate Blanchett gets my vote for her performance as Kate Hepburn in 'The Aviator.' It's not easy playing a legend like Hepburn but Blanchett captured the essence of the character superbly.

Best Actor: Jamie Foxx of 'Ray' has been the favorite since the film was first screened. Foxx captured the complexity of Ray Charles and made him human while still embracing the soul and energy that made him unique.

Best Actress: Hilary Swank and Annette Bening are the front-runners. Swank will probably capture Oscar's heart again this year in her tough yet sympathetic role in 'Million Dollar Baby.'

Best Director: Will Martin Scorsese finally get his much deserved first Academy Award? He was snubbed with 'Raging Bull' and GoodFellas' but has an excellent chance of winning for 'The Aviator.' His biggest competition will come from Clint Eastwood for 'Million Dollar Baby.' While Eastwood may deserve it for this particular film, Scorsese will finally win his much deserved Oscar for a career full of wonderful film making.

Best Picture: 'Million Dollar Baby' seems to have the momentum heading into the home stretch. 'The Aviator' is a close second. The attempts by conservative groups to prevent 'Million Dollar Baby' from winning because of euthanasia issues raised during the film will probably backfire among mostly liberal academy voters.