Brady Finta never stood a chance. His fate on Vanuatu was set the minute the men realized the teams would be divided by gender and that the older, weaker men had a 5 - 4 advantage over the younger, stronger men. The strategy to systematically annihilate the stronger male threats was devised and maintained by Sarge. He very cleverly accessed the successive order of decimation based on each young man’s contribution and threat level. His plan of attack stemmed from his years of military training. Brooke was the first to go because of the four; he was the least athletic but most assertive, capable of uniting a counter strike to Sarge's position. John P. was next in line because his size was the most imposing and seemed least likely of the remaining three to be lead. In addtition, John K. and Brady were more valuable at that point because of the knowledge each possessed. John K. had the opportunity to infiltrate the enemy Yasur team, gathering useful information as to their weaknesses and Brady had FBI training that may also prove useful for intelligence and challenge wins. Alas, the men lost again and Sarge had no choice but to discharge Brady or else lose the support of his alliance. The fate of John K. is set unless outside forces intervene. My observation of Survivor after nine seasons leads to my conclusion that a swap will be made to secure John K.’s participation in order to secure the 18 – 34 viewing demographic, the most important to sponsors, thus to network execs and hence to the producers of the show.

What about the women? After all, didn’t the “young women” alliance have a 5 - 4 advantage over the “older women”? According to the way it was presented, yes, seemingly so. However, a close examination of casting would indicate that there were in fact more “older” women than younger. The women 30 and under comprised of Dolly (25), Eliza (21), Julie (23), and Mia (30). The women 31 and over were Ami (31), Leann (35), Lisa (44), Twila (41), and Scout (59). That’s 5 – 4 with the older women indeed outnumbering the younger. The difference was that Lisa “viewed” herself as one of the younger women, associated more with them and thus aligned with them from the beginning. Ironically, Lisa is the second eldest woman in the tribe yet from an appearance standpoint it is clear she is a woman who is desperately clinging on to her youth. The 'elder” women were able to redirect the numeric advantage by shrewdly seizing an opportunity, manipulating the weakness Dolly expressed by being too indecisive and vocal. Ami brought to both Leann and Eliza’s attention that they were the targeted in successive order respectfully which allowed Scout and Twila to convince Eliza to betray her alliance. Dolly was the new target because she was the most unstable. The next to go was Mia because she brought disharmony to the tribe, ripe for counterstrikes to their new found security. The only remaining women under 30 are now isolated Eliza and Julie after Lisa defected. My observation and prediction for John K. holds true for both of these women for the same reasons.

It is my conjecture that Mark Burnett had a hand in the casting stage of development to solidify the prospect that a different type of ultimate survivor emerges this season. Of the eight former winners: Richard Hatch (39), Tina Wesson (40), Ethan Zohn (27), Vecepia Towery (36), Brian Heidik (34), Jenna Morasca (21), Sandra Diaz-Twine (29), and Amber Brkich (25), no one over 40 or overcoming a disability has ever one. Yet in Vanuatu, of the seven women remaining, three are over 40: Lisa (44), Twila (41), and Scout (59). Scout also has a disability, a replaced knee and cancer survivor. Of the six remaining men, Lea (aka Sarge) is 40 and Chad has a prosthetic leg. If my assessment of special interest casting (discussed in my former articles) is correct, the “final four” outcome would most likely comprise of Sarge, Scout, Chad, and Twila. However, the problem lies with maintaining the interest of the 18 – 34 viewer demographic. Producers would predict that young viewers would tune out, displeasing the network execs. Thus, exchange twists are built in to give young attractions like Eliza (21), John K. (22) and Julie (23) a fighting chance. Previews of the next episode indicate this. Unfortunately for Brady, a former Marine and my early selection as the most deserving to win based on capability, his fate went the way of Hunter Ellis (Survivor: Marquesas), curiously, also former military having served as a Navy pilot. Perhaps his fate is intertwined with Ellis, and he will be offered lucrative deals hosting his own tailor made show, such as Ellis’ Tactical to Practical on the History Channel.