Sources from all major federal parties in Canada predicted on Monday that the much maligned gun registry will survive an attempt to strike it down in the Commons later this week.

An attempt by a dissident Liberal MP to have the whole program scrapped in a vote Thursday will fall flat because the great majority of MP’s still believe in it, they said.

The motion by Ontario MP Roger Gallaway to strip the program of $96 million this fiscal year will only receive widespread support from the Conservatives, they reported. According to one Conservative, echoing remarks from colleagues in other parties, “If you do the math I don’t think it passes.”

Backing from the 99 -member Conservative caucus means the motion would, with a full House of Commons, need approximately 56 more votes to pass.

Gallaway can only count on support from a dozen Liberals or fewer, and will get little if any help from the NDP party or the Bloc Quebecois. Every Bloc Quebecois MP is expected to vote to preserve it, as will perhaps all but one or two NDP members.

One NDP source not only predicted the survival of gun registry but also lashed out at the timing of Gallaway’s initiative. This week marks the 15th anniversary of Montreal’s Polytechnique massacre. He was quoted as saying, “It’s so stupid … It seems to me that the timing is in bad taste.” He went on to say, “But if the Liberals keep their people together, we’re okay.”

One well-connected Liberal MP predicted only 10 to 15 of his colleagues would support Gallaway and said, “They won’t have enough.”

The gun registry in Canada was created due to public pressure following the murder of 14 women on December 6, 1989. The registry was initially supposed to cost $2 million but has to date, ballooned to well over $1 billion.