In each season since the very first sojourn to an island, many fans - myself included - have desperately searched for an alternative which will shake up the standings in the game. We plot, we strategize, we spend seemingly hours, days attempting to come up with the way the underdog of each season will pull off an astonishing finish to the million dollars. While we reveal ourselves as master schemers, the people who are actually *in the game* reveal themselves as having a very difficult time finding their rear ends with their hands, a flashlight, and a Butt Crack for Dummies book. Am I being unfair? Two words: Kim Powers.
Now the midpoint of season 4 has arrived. This time, the players are lean and mean, most of the family bonds are in shambles, and the teams are truly worlds apart. There's no way S4 can be another one-alliance-dominates season, right?
I'm not so sure.
My main source of worry comes from Maraamu. Kathy has her good qualities, but this woman lost two immunity challenges for them, has a very difficult time seeing any opinion that doesn't belch from her mouth, and has already survived a great deal longer than she would have without a switch.
Yet, Neleh and Paschal keep her. Why? Maybe Gina was irritating them and the editing kept this a secret. Maybe they decided to be loyal to Kathy at all costs because of how Rotu dumped Gabe. Maybe they want to take Kathy along as a shield, and they know how vulnerable she is for any alliance. They had any number of any reasons. What it boils down to is the same blind emotion which crippled the latter stages of season 2: Fear. Fear to step out into the open, to make gutsy decisions that could banish you as easily as they could take you to day 39.
Post-boot interviews have different contestants talking about how hilarious Rob is. He may be, but his openly hostile and nasty behavior this week (threatening Zoe, who could snap him in half!) could in no way be perceived as humourous. Rob has only lucked out thus far because of the stupidity of his fellow players, and unless he manages to shift gears, he is going to do nothing but drive Kathy, Neleh, and Paschal (probably timid and fearful because they've been gone so long and know Rotu gladly voted out Gabriel and have the power to do the same to them) right back into the arms of old Rotu.
I am going to be very surprised if the merge doesn't result in old Maraamu going first, with maybe Kathy before Vecepia, then new Maraamu, and finally John/Tammy/Zoe/Robert, possibly with Neleh or Paschal in place of John.
I despise Rob, dislike Sean and Vecepia. Sadly, most of the old Rotu members have become so sullen, so introverted, so dispirited, I also have a difficult time rooting for them. I feel like I'm watching a grudge match between Geraldo Rivera and Bryant Gumbel. Old Maraamu have carried their Tribe of the Damned curse onto Rotu. A once somewhat happy home now has an ensemble who make Rudy seem giddy and flamboyant. And has this show ever had filthier-looking people? I swear, I thought Zoe had bathed in dirt a few minutes before some of her shots. Kimmi would have to really let herself go before she would be welcomed at Rotu.
Many say that nice people are boring, that only conflict generates interest. I don't believe that. Each season has hinged on "nice people", because they provide the balance. They remind us of why we should sit through months of 16 strangers whining about bug bites. Personally, I found the moments of Paschal's quiet devastation over Gabe's departure to be far more compelling than John/Rob auditioning for When Egos Attack.
I'm not trying to be Kreskin or Miss Cleo, but the editing of the show was predictable enough that they should have voted Gina off in the opening credits. The constant chatter about what would happen if Rotu lost - gosh, they didn't lose. Gina saying Maraamu were a family - gee whiz, the family was destroyed. Kathy as outsider, watching Gina try to manipulate? No, of course Gina isn't going.
The only true dose of excitement was the reward challenge, which was one of the best challenges ever. This season has had more than one similiarity to the first season of Survivor UK, and disqualification on a technicality is one of the biggest.
Finally, my thoughts on each of the 11:
John - why did you skinny dip? Do you think your apathetic alliance partners are going to do handstands because they see your weenie? Now you're going to be compared to Richard for the rest of your 15 minutes. And if you were so concerned about throwing immunity, why didn't you sit out at reward so you would be in control of immunity? You aren't a good leader John. You act on instinct and emotion, and you're too obvious. This is why you're going to lose, which is a shame, because I liked you early on.
Vecepia - align with Rodger and Elisabeth while you still can! Tina/Colby/Keith are using you! Huh...that wasn't Vee? Oh that's right, Amber was the one with the personality. Soon, the merged tribe will pretend you no longer exist, like the Brady family did to poor Jan in one of the last season episodes. Your screams of, "Sarah Sarah Sarah!" will cause Rob to hit you in the nose with the football, and you will be airlifted off the island as Neleh says a prayer and tries to remember your name.
Sean - the editing gods have taken kindness upon us and stopped showing your bitching about slavery. Now I can ignore you, which is far preferable. To your credit, you are letting Rob weave his own noose. Feel free to kick the chair away whenever you want to.
Zoe - not much to say, but you have one of the best smiles in the history of the show, even if you rarely have a reason to smile. If you put Rob in a headlock a few times and make him squeal, no one will hold it against you.
Tammy - you are successfully straddling the line between individualist and alliance partner. Good for you in continually testing the boundaries John places on you. John sees you as his sheep and won't realize until seconds too late that you're actually a pitbull.
Rob - apparently you've been rolling in oil, even though seeing you boiled in oil might be a little more fun. For all your talk of superiority, you have yet to successfully manipulate anyone with an IQ over 3. You have now made yourself a huge target, and will only survive through more of the stupid luck you have patented.
Paschal - after weeks as Rodger's weird cousin, you're coming into your own. I feel your pain regarding Gabe. Don't stay with Rotu because you don't want to ruffle feathers. Play an aggressive game, and use your kindly image to manipulate others Surely, a judge can excel at mind games.
Robert - you are contributing absolutely nothing to the show, which, if we use the Africa rulebook, means you will place second or win. If you don't, get a dye job and win large amounts of money in Chris Meloni lookalike contests.
Neleh - you have an image to uphold. America's Sweetheart is a heavy burden to carry. You are obviously saving most of your tears for after the merge. Stay with Paschal, but don't limit yourself to him. Use your innocence as a mask to infiltrate alliances which need you. Remember that you have no reason to be loyal to old Rotu (they will punt you just like they punted Gabe), and play to win, not to understudy Elisabeth.
Kathy - Krazy, Krazy Kathy. Most said the switch saved Gina, but we both know who the true beneficiary was. You've blown two immunity challenges, you let out insane laughs at inopportune times, you say things like, "Sweet Mother McGurdy." Yet, the spirit of Debb saves you each and every week (are you channeling her with the yoga?). The switch saved you from a likely booting at Rotu and has bonded you to two players who desperately need you now. Don't waste your good luck. Don't try to play leader, which will make you an obvious target for all sides. Don't get overconfident and assume old Rotu can't live without you. Realize Rob/Sean/Vecepia are as much of outcasts as you once were, hang one out to dry, and bring the remaining two together with Paschal and Neleh. Remind Paschal and Neleh what happened to Gabriel. Instead of assuming you're needed, *make* vulnerable players need you.
Gina: Honestly Gina, you were doomed as soon as the new Maraamu consisted of 4 women and a middle-aged man. Your attempts to win Paschal and Neleh were clumsy, but you were never a good strategic player. You spent the first week hiding behind Hunter and flailing once he left. Your luck only lasted 6 extra days. At least you finally got to experience what a tribe should be. You were given a heroine's exit. And you did kick butt on the rowing part of the last reward challenge, and that's what I'll remember you for. Have fun partying with Hunter and sticking Sarah's hand in a pool of warm water.
Next Week: NewTribe wear romaine lettuce on their head, tensions flare, and if my absolutely worthless predictions are right for once, Rob or Kathy are the last pre-jury casualty.
